Briefing: It's crunch time for the Kosovo independence plan

So it's a big week for the future of Kosovo?

It certainly is. The status of the UN-run Serbian province, whose ethnic Albanians are clamouring for independence, is in the balance because Russia is threatening to veto a UN resolution that would grant virtual independence to Kosovo under international supervision. Tomorrow Condoleezza Rice, the American Secretary of State, will ask the leaders of Kosovo not to do anything rash. European foreign ministers are also expected to discuss the crisis tomorrow. Then on Wednesday the international Contact Group, which includes the United States, Britain, France and Russia, will discuss what to do next.

What's Russia's problem?

Russia is supporting its fellow orthodox Slavs, the Serbs, against the Muslim ethnic Albanians who make up 90 per cent of Kosovo's 2 million population. Russia says it won't accept a solution that is not acceptable to Belgrade, but Serbia remains opposed to the package on the table.

The bigger picture is that Russia is concerned about changing borders when it is fighting separatists in Chechnya. A senior Russian official warned on Friday that Kosovo's independence "would represent a fuse that would ignite several conflicts in different parts of the world". Russia's partners have tried to reassure Moscow that Kosovo is a unique case.

What would happen if the Kosovars declared unilateral independence?

It would be messy, to say the least. All in the West agree that the time has come for a settlement, that Kosovo's uncertain political status is not sustainable and that leaving Kosovo in limbo would be damaging to the stability of Europe. But if the UN route fails the Contact Group could step in and put the plan into effect anyway. Ms Rice warned on Friday that Kosovo will get its independence from Serbia "one way or another". It is hoped that further tinkering with the resolution could satisfy the Russians, but don't hold your breath. It's a mess, and is going to get a whole lot messier.

Are the Russians kicking up rough because of the Litvinenko affair?

It seems unlikely. Britain and Russia want to confine the fallout from the death of the former KGB agent to the bilateral sphere. Russia has its eye on the bigger geo-strategic picture with its Kosovo policy.

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