Tory lead slips as voters welcome Budget

The Tories' lead over Labour has fallen sharply in the wake of the Budget, according to the latest monthly opinion poll for The Independent.

The survey by CommunicateResearch puts David Cameron's Conservatives on 35 per cent (down five points on last month), Labour on 31 per cent (+2), the Liberal Democrats on 20 per cent (+3) and other parties on 14 per cent (unchanged). The Tory lead has dropped from 11 points to just four.

Labour's recovery is mainly due to a swing back to the party among middle-income groups - a key target of Gordon Brown's final Budget last week. Labour's support among the C2 social group, credited with keeping Margaret Thatcher in power, has risen from 23 per cent to 32 per cent in the past month. Among the next highest group on the scale, the C1s, Labour is up from 27 per cent to 32 per cent.

However, the Budget may be proving less popular with the bottom DE social group, some of whom will be worse off following Mr Brown's decision to abolish the 10p in the pound starting rate of income tax. Labour's rating among this group has dropped from 39 per cent to 32 per cent since last month.

The Tories have lost ground among age groups that include many taxpayers. Their level of support has dropped from 40 per cent to 36 per cent among 25 to 34-year-olds and is down from 40 per cent to 33 per cent among 35 to 44-year-olds. Mr Cameron's party has lost support among men, with its rating down six points since February's poll.

Mr Brown's Budget may have halted a slide in support for Labour among the party's traditional supporters in recent months. The proportion of these who say they will vote for the party has risen from 76 per cent to 79 per cent since last month, while the Tories' level of "core vote" support has fallen from 91 per cent to 87 per cent. The number of natural Liberal Democrats who say they will back the party is up from 83 per cent to 87 per cent.

The Tories are ahead in the South-east, the Midlands and Northern England but Labour holds the advantage in Scotland, Wales and the South-west.

Among other parties, the Greens are on 4 per cent, the Scottish National Party 3 per cent, and Ukip, the BNP and Plaid Cymru all on 1 per cent.

The findings will help to steady the nerves of Labour MPs as they weigh up whether Mr Brown should face a heavyweight challenge for the party leadership when Tony Blair stands down as Prime Minister this summer.

David Miliband, the Environment Secretary, is under pressure from some ultra-Blairites to stand against Mr Brown. But close allies said yesterday he would not divide Labour by mounting a "kamikaze mission" that would in any case end in defeat for him.

In the Budget, Mr Brown cut the basic rate of income tax from 22p to 20p in the pound but the abolition of the 10p rate prompted Tory attacks that it was "a tax con, not a tax cut".

Labour claims its private polls show that, while people believe Mr Brown "robbed Peter to pay Paul", a large majority identify themselves as "Pauls" and think they will be better off. Officials said there was support for the Budget's "green tax" measures such as higher road tax for gas-guzzling vehicles but strong opposition to Tory plans for a "green air miles" scheme to impose higher taxes on frequent flyers.

However, a Populus survey found that only 11 per cent of people think they will pay less tax after the Budget, with 26 per cent believing they will pay more and 48 per cent think it will make no real difference.

Only 8 per cent said Mr Brown's package would make them more likely to back Labour, 26 per cent less likely and 60 per cent that it would make no difference.

A YouGov poll found that 48 per cent of people believe the Budget would leave them worse off, 28 per cent that it would make no difference and only 18 per cent felt they would be better off.

CommunicateResearch telephoned 1,002 GB adults between 23-25 March. The data was weighted to take account of expected turnout and party identification for those who declined to say how they would vote. The sample was also weighted by how respondents said they had voted in the 2005 general election. CommunicateResearch is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.communicateresearch.com

Interesting? Click here to explore further