Tories open up eight-point lead over Labour
Tuesday, 3 April 2007
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The Conservative leader David Cameron has opened up his biggest opinion poll lead over Labour, according to the latest monthly "poll of polls" for The Independent.
The weighted average of the main surveys conducted in March puts the Conservative Party on 39 per cent (up one point since February), Labour on 31 per cent (down one) and the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent (no change). So the Tory lead has stretched from six to eight percentage points in a month.
The findings suggest that Mr Cameron has found new momentum after appearing to hit a plateau late last year. They also point to a set of poor results for Labour at the 3 May elections to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly and English local authorities. Privately, Labour sources admit the party faces a "bloody nose" in Tony Blair's final elections as party leader. He is expected to announce his resignation a few days later.
However, there are growing fears among Labour MPs that his successor, probably Gordon Brown, may find it hard to turn round the widening poll deficit and regain the initiative from the Tories.
Translated into a general election result, the latest "poll of polls" would give the Tories 308 seats, Labour 268, the Liberal Democrats 43 and other parties 31.
Although Mr Cameron would then need some collaboration from the Liberal Democrats to govern, a further small advance by his party would deny Labour the option of forming a pact with the Liberal Democrats to retain power.
"There is good reason why Labour backbenchers might be getting jittery about their future careers as Blair's resignation approaches," said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the figures from the regular surveys conducted last month by ICM, Ipsos MORI, Populus, YouGov and CommunicateResearch.
He said the Tory lead was already growing before Mr Brown delivered his Budget last month so it was doubtful the event was responsible for the widening gap between the two biggest parties. But he said Labour's advantage over the Tories on economic competence was gradually being eroded. Until last summer, Labour was consistently ahead on this issue, then the two parties were neck and neck until the turn of the year, and now the Tories are three points ahead.
At the same time, Mr Brown's personal popularity appears to be waning, said Professor Curtice. The number of people who think he would make a good prime minister has fallen from 40 per cent to 30 per cent since December.
Professor Curtice said Labour's prospects in the English council elections were "poor" and the party could suffer further significant losses, while the Scottish National Party would go into the elections for the Edinburgh parliament ahead in the polls for the first time.
Mr Blair and Mr Brown will today launch Labour's campaign for the 3 May elections. In an e-mail to Labour activists, the Prime Minister tries to raise their spirits and urges them to campaign on local rather than national issues.
He said: "We have made communities more secure, wealthier, fairer and, I hope, happier. What the public wants to know is that we have the determination, the policies and the ambition to keep improving their lives. They are looking for optimism and hope from Labour. We should give it to them. We are a party who have achieved so much and have even more to do."
The Prime Minister said that Labour councils lead the way in value for money, lower council tax increases on average than rival parties, tackling crime and anti-social behaviour and improving the local environment. "Labour puts the rights of the decent majority before those of the mindless minority," he said.
He said: "I've had the huge privilege of leading Labour into every campaign for 12 years. Over the years, our party has worked successfully to make Britain fairer and more prosperous, we have also changed the electoral battleground. But what's not changed is my enthusiasm for getting our achievements and plans for the future across."
