Brown's 'bounce' fails to materialise as Tories take five-point lead
Tuesday, 26 June 2007
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The prospect of Gordon Brown calling an early general election receded after the latest monthly poll for The Independent gave the Tories a five-point lead over Labour. According to CommunicateResearch, David Cameron's party has extended its lead by one point in the past month. It dampened speculation that Mr Brown will seek a personal mandate from the voters sooner rather than later.
The survey shows the Tories on 37 per cent, up two points since last month, with Labour on 32 per cent (up one point) and the Liberal Democrats on 18 per cent (down one point). It suggests the incoming Prime Minister has not yet secured a "Brown bounce" in the polls, despite the broadly positive media coverage he has received.
Speculation that Mr Brown might call an election next spring was fuelled by an Ipsos MORI survey on Sunday putting Labour three points ahead of the Tories. This was taken between 14 and 20 June, but the CommunicateResearch polling was conducted between Friday and Sunday - after Mr Brown's offer to include Liberal Democrats in his ministerial team was rebuffed.
The Independent's findings suggest Mr Brown has a lot of work to do before he can contemplate going to the country. Even among people who regard themselves as natural Labour supporters, the party's support is falling rather than rising. The number who say they would vote Labour has dropped in the past month from 85 per cent to 83 per cent. In contrast, 93 per cent of Tory "identifiers" say they would back Mr Cameron's party (unchanged since last month).
Some 12 per cent of natural Labour supporters say they are certain not to vote, compared to 9 per cent of Tories. Only 43 per cent of Labour "identifiers" are absolutely certain to vote, while among natural Tories the figure is 50 per cent.
The poll suggests a substantial "gender gap". Among men, the Tories (40 per cent) have a 10-point lead over Labour (30 per cent), but only a small two-point advantage among women, leading Labour by 35 per cent to 33 per cent. There is also a signficant "age gap". Labour is ahead among the 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44 age groups, but the Tories hold the lead among 45-54s, 55-64s and those 65 and over.
The overall findings will come as a relief to the Tories. Yesterday Mr Cameron went on the offensive by challenging Mr Brown to call an immediate election. "Bring it on," he said. "If Gordon Brown is serious about wanting to listen to the people of this country then he should call an election right now."
Allies of the new Labour leader played down the chances of an early election, saying Mr Brown believes it will take two years to plan and mount a campaign.
The one-point drop in support for the Liberal Democrats, although small, will worry the party's MPs. Today Sir Menzies Campbell will try to steady his party's nerves after his response to last week's offer by Mr Brown came under fire. He will reassure activists and MPs: "I am not prepared to trade our principled opposition for the sake of ministerial jobs."
Sir Menzies will attack the "cosy consensus" of Labour and the Tories on issues such as the Iraq war and insist his party is "united, strong and independent". But he will say that his party would welcome all-party talks on issues including climate change and constitutional reform.
CommunicateResearch telephoned 1,005 GB adults between 22 and 24 June 2007. Data were weighted by past vote recall. CommunicateResearch is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables at www.communicateresearch.com
