Tories open 8-point lead after election blunder
Tuesday, 30 October 2007
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The Conservatives have opened an eight-point lead over Labour following Gordon Brown's decision to call off a general election, according to the latest monthly poll for The Independent.
The ComRes survey shows a remarkable turnaround since last month, when Labour enjoyed a three-point lead on the eve of the party conference season. Now the Tories are on 41 per cent (up seven percentage points since last month), Labour on 33 per cent (down four points), the Liberal Democrats on 16 per cent (up one point) and others on 10 per cent (down four points).
If repeated at a general election, the figures would give David Cameron an overall majority of two seats.
The findings will worry Labour MPs, who have taken comfort from some recent surveys showing the party in the high thirties despite Mr Brown's embarrassing retreat over the election that never was. However, Labour will hope that the Liberal Democrats revive after choosing a new leader in December, which could depress the Conservatives' ratings. The recent advance of Mr Cameron's party has been partly at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.
According to ComRes, the Tory surge over the past month is due mainly to a swing to the party among men, younger voters and people living in London and the South-east, a key election battleground.
Tory support among men has risen from 31 per cent to 41 per cent, while among women it has increased from 37 per cent to 41 per cent. Conversely, Labour's support among men has dropped from 40 per cent to 31 per cent and among women from 35 per cent to 34 per cent. A possible explanation is that men regard Mr Brown's vacillation over calling an election as weak, whereas women may be less concerned about it.
Last month, Labour enjoyed a lead in London and the South-east (by 39 per cent to 35 per cent) but now the tables are turned, with the Tories on 50 per cent and Labour trailing badly on 26 per cent.
The Tories, who have struggled to make a big impact on 18- to 24-year-olds, are now level pegging with Labour on 35 per cent among this age group. Last month, Labour was ahead by 41 per cent to 15 per cent.
Mr Cameron's party appears to be better at mobilising its core vote than its rivals, with 93 per cent of people who regard themselves as natural Conservatives saying they intend to back the party (up from 92 per cent last month).
The proportion of Labour identifiers who say they will support the party has dropped from 88 per cent to 81 per cent since last month, while the number of natural Liberal Democrats intending to back the party has fallen from 77 per cent to 69 per cent. More Liberal Democrat identifiers say they will vote Tory (14 per cent) than Labour (12 per cent).
Tory supporters are more likely to vote than those of other parties. Some 66 per cent of natural Conservatives say they are absolutely certain to vote, compared with 61 per cent of Labour's natural supporters and 58 per cent of the Liberal Democrats'.
About one in 10 Labour and Liberal Democrat identifiers say they are certain not to vote, compared with 5 per cent of natural Tories.
ComRes, formerly CommunicateResearch, telephoned 1,002 GB adults on 26-28 October, 2007. Data were weighted by past vote recall. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full tables are at www.comres.co.uk
