A nation goes to the polls: Democracy, Nigerian style

The winners sunk crates of champagne at all-night parties while the losers called their lawyers and headed for the courts. So quick is the recourse to law in political disputes in Nigeria these days that lawyers count themselves as winners whatever happens on the political battlefield. And battlefield it was with some 60 people dead and 280 arrested and a residual fury at the state-organised cheating and thuggery that marked Saturday's national elections for state governors. Groups of protesters took to the streets in half a dozen cities calling for the cancellation of the elections. Some turned nasty, overturning cars and setting up burning barricades.

But even as they were picking over the results that trickled out during the morning, another bombshell landed on the battlefield. Democracy in Nigeria was in crisis last night as the Supreme Court cleared the Vice-President to run for President in another set of elections this Saturday, overturning an earlier ruling which had banned him from taking part.

At the same time a coalition of electoral monitoring organisations declared that 10 of the 36 elections held last Saturday for governorships were not free and fair and rejected the results. European Union observers talked of serious flaws. In another six elections, candidates who had been banned from standing by the same ruling that kept the Vice-President out, can now seek court rulings to get those elections declared void.

There were immediate reports of angry crowds and some violence from around the country.

A spokesman for Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, who has been at loggerheads with President Olusegun Obasanjo since 2003, declared that he would stand but there was no confirmation from the Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec). It was unclear if his name was on the ballot paper and, if it was not, whether there was time for the papers to be reprinted and distributed. Government officials were reported to be frantically looking for other technicalities that could be used to prevent Mr Abubakar standing.

The Supreme Court ruled that the Inec did not have the constitutional power to disqualify any candidates from standing in the election. Not only is this a major blow to MrObasanjo on the eve of his departure from the presidency but it opens up the possibility that - if they agree to work together - the opposition parties could now overturn his plan to shoo-in his successor, Umaru Yar'Adua. That is a big if. More likely is that the opposition will remain divided and Mr Yar'Adua will walk it.

But it will be no stroll. About 60 people were killed in violence during last Saturday's election for state governors. In many areas ballot boxes were stolen and stuffed and people were frightened away from polling stations by thugs. Much of the political class is enraged by Mr Obasanjo's attempt to change the constitution last year so he could continue to rule and his attempts to manipulate and dictate the political process. When the President suddenly declared that last Thursday and Friday were public holidays in preparation for the election, it was assumed to be a stratagem to hold up the court ruling on Mr Abubakar. But Saturday's result was a landslide for the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP), proving that its well-funded political machine worked well, winning 26 out of 32 states for which results had been declared.

Yesterday's ruling has been widely described by commentators as a blow for democracy and freedom. Already scorching, the political temperature has gone off the scale. This is the most dangerous moment Nigeria has faced since democracy was restored in 1999 and it comes as the country heads into its third democratic election since then.

If the election goes ahead, it will be the first time that one elected head of state hands over to another. If it goes wrong it is not just some 126 million Nigerians that will suffer - there is no reliable census and figures range from 126 million and 140 million. Nigeria's stability is essential to west Africa and to the rest of the continent, where it plays a vital diplomatic and occasionally military role in ending wars and disputes. Its power comes from the size of its population and 2.5 million barrels of oil a day and growing quantities of gas. This makes it the cornerstone of US policy in the region which expects to receive 25 per cent of its oil from west Africa before long. America has recently established a military presence in the region to protect its interests and offered help to Nigeria in crushing the uprisings in the Delta. Nigeria is not just another African country in trouble.

But it will take time to recover from this severe shock to the system. There is real anger at the way Mr Obasanjo has handled this election and blatantly tried to disqualify the Vice-President. The breakdown of trust within the political class will make politics even rougher than it usually is in Nigeria.

If candidates disqualified by Inec from standing for governorships last Saturday get court orders to have their state elections rerun, this could take months. Many of Nigeria's state governments, which have substantial powers and budgets, will be in abeyance for months as these appeals grind though the courts.

Mr Abubakar fell out with President Obasanjo in 2003 and in September last year he was indicted by a cabinet committee over allegations that he had channelled $125m (£63m) into personal businesses. Nigeria's anti-corruption body, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, put him under investigation and that, said the electoral commission, meant he could not run for president. Mr Abubakar had made no secret of his ambitions to be president and Mr Obasanjo did everything in his powers to stop him, suspending him from the ruling party. But he found he could not sack Mr Abubakar as Vice-President even though Mr Abubakar left the party and joined the opposition Action Congress (AC) which promptly made him its presidential candidate.

Three men now contend for the leadership of sub-Saharan Africa's second most powerful country after South Africa and a key player in the development of the continent: Mr Abubakar, Muhammadu Buhari and Mr Yar'Adua. All three are Muslims from the north. Mr Buhari, a dour former general who mounted a coup in 1983 and ruled for more than a year before he was overthrown, now stands as a democrat. He is remembered for being a strict disciplinarian and not particularly corrupt and ran unsuccessfully in both previous elections, in 1999 and 2003. Although some believe Mr Obasanjo's unpopularity would allow him to win a free and fair election, he is unlikely to win this time.

Mr Yar'Adua, a surprise choice by Mr Obasanjo to succeed him, has been governor of Katsina state for the past eight years and is a northern aristocrat. Quiet, stay-at-home, serious but not inspiring, Mr Yar'Adua ended his governorship with a surplus and he is one of only five governors out of 36 not being investigated for corruption. His brother, Shehu, was a widely respected army general who had helped restore democracy in 1979 and was murdered by General Abacha.

Mr Abubakar who made his first millions while in charge of customs, is a Nigerian politician to his fingertips. He comes from the same state as Mr Yar'Adua and their businesses and politics are deeply entwined. Indeed when Shehu Yar'Ardua died, Mr Abubakar was described as "inheriting his political networks". Translated, this means that there were a lot of powerful people all over Nigeria who owed Shehu and Mr Abubakar could now call in that debt to help him win - or rig - elections. That is why Mr Obasanjo made him his running mate in 1999. It was Mr Abubakar who delivered northern Nigeria to Mr Obasanjo with the usual Nigerian political tools; cash hand-outs, threats and stuffed ballot boxes. Promises? "No Nigerian would accept a politician's promise," said one Nigerian commentator, "they want nothing but cash in hand now". If Mr Abubakar really wants to win now he would have to make a deal with Mr Buhari, an old enemy, to get him to withdraw and betray Mr Yar'Adua. To win the presidency a candidate must win two thirds of the vote in two thirds of the states. If there is no clear winner, it goes to a run-off. If it goes to a second round and either Mr Buhari or Mr Abubakar agree to support whichever of them goes through, they might defeat Mr Yar'Adua. Even in Nigerian politics this looks a betrayal too far for Mr Abubakar.

It is hard for outsiders to comprehend the traditional Nigerian way of conducting transactions, be they politics or business. Fed almost entirely by oil money from the top, Nigeria is like a vast machine driven by dash - bribes. Almost no one seems to do anything from civic duty or because they are paid a salary. Everyone has to be paid personally. At a low level in every office and waiting room you watch the sleight slipping of banknotes from requester to requested. A campaigning politician must hand out cash to win people's votes, a student must pay to register for university, a businessman must keep his supplier happy. Officials make their money by setting up companies in the names of their friends and relations and awarding them overpriced contracts.

At a higher level every transaction must be accompanied by a personal cash bonus which everyone - Nigerian and foreigner - pays. Nigeria is a rich country and these can run into millions of pounds. Nuhu Ribadu, the head of the anti-corruption commission, said recently that more than $380bn had been stolen from the government since independence. Although that figure cannot be verified, its announcement caused no surprise among Nigerians.

A few billionaires and their attendant millionaires take state funds at will and dole them out to buy favours or get something done further down the food chain. A senior official who has recently returned from abroad to work in government was astonished to find that even a request with the President's signature on it will stay in an intray unless accompanied by dash. The wheels simply do not turn without money up front.

Many people ascribe the origins of this system to the oil sector, which is where Nigeria's all-powerful godfathers operate. Oil theft - known here as bunkering - costs Nigeria some $4bn a year according to the government. The Niger Delta, which produces most of Nigeria's oil, has become a war zone, divided between heavily armed rival gangs battling for access to pipelines to cut and tap. But they do not operate alone. According to a recent report for the Niger Delta Peace and Security Working Group, the youths who do this are working for the godfathers - the patrons as they are called. The groups are "headed by a local boss. Very few of the local bosses will know who the actual patron is. Patrons often have close relationships to the government and military''.

This is by far the most difficult problem that an incoming president will have to face. President Obasanjo's task when he came to power in 1999 was to neutralise the army politically and remove potential coup-makers from its senior ranks. This he did swiftly and effectively. Today it is hard to imagine an army coup taking place. But in his first term he was hamstrung by the need to repay debts from those who had bankrolled his campaign. After he won in 1999 he began to move on the economy and, supercharged by a rising oil price, he has been able to pay off or negotiate Nigeria's $32bn debt and still have a surplus in the treasury. He also tackled corruption, setting up a powerful commission which investigated powerful people, even the head of police who was then convicted and jailed and forced to return money he had stolen. Critics point to deeply corrupt supporters of Mr Obasanjo who were left untouched but as the new saying here goes: "Fear of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission is the beginning of wisdom".

His efforts to solve Nigeria's intermittent power supply, however, have failed and the country is still hampered by daily power cuts. He has also delivered little in the way of development, schools and hospitals. History may be kind to him but at present Nigerians feel his attempt to secure a third term undermined all the other achievements of eight years of democratic rule. Whoever succeeds him will inherit considerable reserves of cash in the bank but a huge deficit of respect for government among the people.

The candidates

Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, PDP

A member of the ruling PDP party, Mr Yar'Adua, 56, was "anointed" by President Obasanjo as his successor late last year, making him the most likely candidate to win. A committed Muslim, Mr Yar'Adua is regarded as being untainted by corruption and is renowned for his public humility.

Muhammadu Buhari, ANPP

Regarded by many as the strongman of Nigeria, Mr Buhari, 64, led the country for a brief period in the Eighties when the military seized power after accusing the civilian government of rampant corruption. He is unlikely to win the election and has been sidelined by his own party.

Atiku Abubakar, AC

Nigeria's Vice-President and once a firm political ally of President Obasanjo, Mr Abubakar, 60, is now the leading opposition figure after he was suspended from the ruling PDP party and accused of diverting £63m of government funds into his personal business. Nigeria's Supreme Court yesterday overturned a ruling banning him from contesting the elections.

Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, APGA FACTION

A former warlord and the leader of the Biafra secessionists who plunged Nigeria into civil war, Mr Ojukwu, 73, lived in Ivory Coast for 13 years before his pardon in 1980. He returned to politics last year, but holds little popular support outside his ethnic community.

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